Friday

Talk about miffed!

I love horse racing.

I could go on and on about the reasons why.

Sure, racing's popularity is at an ebb these days, and bad publicity following the filly Eight Belles' death in the Kentucky Derby has done much to damage its reputation, but there are still hard core racing fans out there and I am proud to count myself among them.

From the atmosphere at the track to the beauty of the animals themselves, I find a lot to like as a "sports fan" and spectator.

There is something supremely relaxing about sitting in the stands and enjoying a beautiful day or taking a walk to the paddock to watch the horses being saddled and guided around the walking ring.

These tranquil interludes are broken up by two minute periods of furious action and excitement as the actual races are run.

Sure the races are fun to watch and there are few summer experiences that can top a day at the track, but the excitement is greatly increased when you've risked a little money and this leads to the true reason I find horse racing so compelling.

Racing is not just a sport, but it is also game. A game that takes knowledge and skill to play well and a game that rewards hard work and diligence with more than one kind of satisfaction.....the satisfaction of financial gain and, perhaps more importantly, the satisfaction of being right.

This takes you beyond a mere spectator and turns you into someone who has an actual stake in the outcome of each event.

Unlike most other forms of gambling, you are not playing against the "house" when you bet the races. You are playing against the other fans who are there with you (and others around the country). The track has no interest in weather you win or lose, only that you bet. Thus, there is no house advantage and by increasing your skill you can gain your own advantage over the people you play against.

Sure there are many people that go to the track for the day and bet on horses that carry their lucky number or favorite color, but for the serious player the real work takes place before he or she ever sets foot in the grandstand. Work that leads to an advantage over the casual or unskilled player.

Horse racing may be more glamorous in England, and Japanese race horses may be household names, but no horse player in the world is provided with anything near the sheer volume of useful data about upcoming and past races that the American fan has access to.

Each horse is judiciously watched and timed when it is working out and when it is racing and this data is used to create the myriad of times, speed figures, and pace numbers that are printed in the Daily Racing Form (and elsewhere) and are used by the prospective players to handicap the upcoming race. In other words, make an educated guess as to the outcome and then wager accordingly. The idea being that horses are quite literally creatures of habit and are wont to perform repetitive tasks the same way they have in the past. Studying what the horse has done previously can lead you to a reasonable expectation of what he will do in the future. You may have heard the story about the horse who could take his master home after he passed out drunk in town. Same idea.



Here's some old bastard with his copy of the form:





Poring over this data and sinking my teeth into the stats the night before a trip to the track is my second favorite thing about playing the races. (The first being when that effort results in me holding a winning ticket).

The thing about this is, other serious players have access to the exact same information I do, and the result of many people backing the same horse is lower odds.

Lower odds mean lower payouts and lower payouts mean you have to win more often to make money.

I hope you didn't get the idea that utilizing this data leads to me being able to pick the winner of every race. I strive for a 40% win rate and in reality, it's at around 20% just about as often as it is 40.

Low payouts and a 20% win rate are a recipe for breaking even at best and more often result in a losing day.


You have probably guessed by now that finding information that other players don't have is a key part of actually making money with your bets and attempting to do just that is what has led to my current state of incredible miffedness.

I mentioned the Eight Belles tragedy at the beginning of this post, and it kind of ties in to my quest for unique info. In the interest of safety and the prevention of just the kind of thing that happened to that great horse, many tracks have installed synthetic racing surfaces in place of their dirt ovals.

Yes...fake dirt. Mostly the surfaces are comprised of sand, wax, rubber chunks, and fibers and they are designed to not only cushion the horses' feet as they run, but drain off water and eliminate the muddy and potentially dangerous conditions brought on by rain and other bad weather.

A noble idea that has yet to bear fruit.....no real data has proven that the synthetic tracks decrease injuries..only that the horses suffer different kinds of injuries when running on them.

The tracks have their supporters and detractors and I constantly vacillate between both camps, but one thing is certain: Some of these tracks play hell with normal handicapping methods. The tried and true rules simply don't apply.

This has led to many people refusing to bet at tracks that have these surfaces installed.

It has also led to many horses winning at very attractive odds.

Thinking about this led me to a brilliant idea.

I would build my own database consisting of the results of every single race run at the last Keeneland meet.

(Keeneland is a track in Kentucky that only runs for two weeks at a time and features one of the most inscrutable synthetic surfaces in horse racing.)

This incredible database would lead me to insights not available to my opponents and allow me to destroy them at the next meet.


I was going to be rich!!!! Well, maybe I could win a couple hundred bucks anyway.


I set to work.

I downloaded the result charts of every single race, I designed and built an Access database that would contain every relevant bit of info I could glean.

Running times, fractions, sires, dams, trainers, jockeys, early pace, late pace, speed!!!

Oh it was a thing to behold!


I spent hours entering the data from the charts into the database. It was tedious work but I was buoyed by the prospect of the huge payoff my efforts would earn.
The summer wore on and every day brought me closer to the opening of the fall Keeneland meet and the vicious attack I would launch from my online betting account.

Then one day I looked at their website.

Keeneland, who as a track has no interest in weather I win or lose...just that I bet.....MADE A DATABASE AVAILABLE ON THEIR SITE THAT COMPILES RACING DATA FROM EVERY RACE SINCE 2006!!





Motherfuckers fucked me.



So, everyone who takes the time to look on their site will have access to a database just like mine. Only bigger.



I think I'll play Santa Anita instead.